Fiat Elpis Research https://fiatelpis.com/research/ Evidence-led global macro research by Saâd Filali Khattabi and Fiat Elpis. en Fri, 21 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0100 The AI token price floor is moving from cost to value https://fiatelpis.com/research/ai-token-prices-cost-floor https://fiatelpis.com/research/ai-token-prices-cost-floor AI model costs keep falling per task, but usage and agent workloads are rising faster. Token pricing is shifting from a compute race to value capture. saadfk@fiatelpistrading.com (Saâd Filali Khattabi) AI economics Fri, 21 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0100 The July jobs report is an AI warning—but not AI proof https://fiatelpis.com/research/ai-job-losses-july-2026-payrolls https://fiatelpis.com/research/ai-job-losses-july-2026-payrolls U.S. payrolls fell 23,000 in July 2026 and local government education lost jobs. The data show labor cooling, but do not isolate AI as the cause. saadfk@fiatelpistrading.com (Saâd Filali Khattabi) Labor & AI Fri, 21 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0100 SoftBank’s OpenAI stake is hidden inside the ARM discount https://fiatelpis.com/research/softbank-nav-discount-arm-openai-buyback https://fiatelpis.com/research/softbank-nav-discount-arm-openai-buyback SoftBank’s June 2026 NAV was roughly twice its share price. ARM dominates visible value while OpenAI sits inside SVF2, making buybacks unusually accretive. saadfk@fiatelpistrading.com (Saâd Filali Khattabi) Holding companies Fri, 21 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0100 Why strong memory earnings could not stop Korea’s forced selling https://fiatelpis.com/research/korea-memory-stocks-forced-selling https://fiatelpis.com/research/korea-memory-stocks-forced-selling Korea tripled minimum deposits for single-stock leveraged products in July 2026. Trading collapsed, showing how flows can overpower memory fundamentals. saadfk@fiatelpistrading.com (Saâd Filali Khattabi) Market structure Fri, 21 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0100 USD/JPY can fall on positioning before fundamentals turn https://fiatelpis.com/research/usdjpy-carry-trade-intervention-risk-2026 https://fiatelpis.com/research/usdjpy-carry-trade-intervention-risk-2026 Japan’s 2026 yen intervention and crowded futures positioning create USD/JPY unwind risk even while the real-rate differential remains dollar-supportive. saadfk@fiatelpistrading.com (Saâd Filali Khattabi) Foreign exchange Fri, 21 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0100 AI capex is accelerating because the revenue backlog is accelerating too https://fiatelpis.com/research/hyperscaler-ai-capex-2026-sustainable https://fiatelpis.com/research/hyperscaler-ai-capex-2026-sustainable Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta are lifting AI spending. Faster cloud growth and backlog explain why the capex cycle is not rolling over yet. saadfk@fiatelpistrading.com (Saâd Filali Khattabi) AI capital cycle Fri, 21 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0100 CoreWeave’s credit can work even when the equity disappoints https://fiatelpis.com/research/coreweave-debt-vs-stock-credit-equity https://fiatelpis.com/research/coreweave-debt-vs-stock-credit-equity CoreWeave’s backlog, contracts and financing reduce near-term default risk, but dilution, capex and return on capital still matter for CRWV equity. saadfk@fiatelpistrading.com (Saâd Filali Khattabi) AI infrastructure credit Fri, 21 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0100 A CXMT ban would protect memory pricing—and raise the cost of AI https://fiatelpis.com/research/cxmt-ban-micron-memory-prices https://fiatelpis.com/research/cxmt-ban-micron-memory-prices A U.S. CXMT or YMTC procurement ban could support Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix while keeping DRAM and NAND supply tighter for AI buyers. saadfk@fiatelpistrading.com (Saâd Filali Khattabi) Technology policy Fri, 21 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0100 SanDisk and Kioxia are selling duration, not just expensive NAND https://fiatelpis.com/research/sandisk-kioxia-nand-duration-2027 https://fiatelpis.com/research/sandisk-kioxia-nand-duration-2027 SanDisk agreements and Kioxia’s AI storage roadmap extend NAND visibility beyond 2027. The valuation question is shifting from price to duration. saadfk@fiatelpistrading.com (Saâd Filali Khattabi) NAND & storage Fri, 21 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0100 The AI memory supercycle is a duration story, not a spot-price story https://fiatelpis.com/research/ai-memory-supercycle-2027-2028 https://fiatelpis.com/research/ai-memory-supercycle-2027-2028 Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron point to persistent AI-driven DRAM and HBM scarcity. Here is why the 2027–2028 supply response may still arrive late. saadfk@fiatelpistrading.com (Saâd Filali Khattabi) Semiconductors Fri, 21 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0100 Gold and Fed rate-hike odds: why September may be underpriced https://fiatelpis.com/research/gold-fed-rate-hike-september-2026 https://fiatelpis.com/research/gold-fed-rate-hike-september-2026 Gold near $4,400, rising oil and a 10-year Treasury yield back near 4.7% suggest markets may be underpricing a September 2026 Federal Reserve rate hike. saadfk@fiatelpistrading.com (Saâd Filali Khattabi) Federal Reserve Fri, 21 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0100