{
  "title": "AI lab funding: evidence and assumptions",
  "as_of": "2026-10-22",
  "scope": "Selected company announcements, filings, reported financial information and independent research. Public links are provided; no subscriber reports or raw social-media archives are republished.",
  "model_status": "All annual 2027/28 cash-flow inputs, usable opening cash, cash floors and fresh-funding outputs in our scenario model are FIAT ELPIS assumptions or calculations. The sources below inform those assumptions; none supplies a complete, verified annual funding schedule for both labs.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "anthropic_rounds",
      "title": "Anthropic Series G and Series H funding announcements",
      "date": "2026-05-28",
      "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/series-h",
      "related_sources": [
        {
          "date": "2026-02-12",
          "title": "Anthropic raises $30 billion in Series G funding",
          "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-raises-30-billion-series-g-funding-380-billion-post-money-valuation"
        }
      ],
      "classification": "Company-reported financing",
      "supports": "$30bn Series G plus $65bn Series H: $95bn of announced capital raised during 2026.",
      "limit": "Previously committed strategic investments are included in these rounds. Do not add them again. Announced capital raised is not a disclosure of current unrestricted cash."
    },
    {
      "id": "openai_round",
      "title": "OpenAI: Accelerating the next phase of AI",
      "date": "2026-03-31",
      "url": "https://openai.com/index/accelerating-the-next-phase-ai/",
      "classification": "Company-reported financing",
      "supports": "$122bn of committed capital in the closed round and a $4.7bn revolving credit facility, undrawn at announcement.",
      "limit": "Committed capital is not necessarily cash received on that date. Do not add the full round to a cash balance already containing initial receipts."
    },
    {
      "id": "amazon_q2_filing",
      "title": "Amazon Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, Note 2",
      "date": "2026-07-30",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000026/amzn-20260630.htm",
      "classification": "Primary regulatory filing",
      "supports": "Amazon's $50bn OpenAI investment was paid in tranches. Anthropic's $20bn facility was reduced by $5bn of Series H participation; remaining availability depends on compute-delivery milestones.",
      "limit": "The remaining $15bn Anthropic facility is conditional future financing, not opening cash or an automatically drawable balance. Existing round participation must not be counted twice."
    },
    {
      "id": "openai_multiyear_plan",
      "title": "Reuters: OpenAI expects to burn almost $280bn by 2030, citing FT",
      "date": "2026-09-18",
      "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/openai-expects-to-burn-through-almost-280-billion-by-2030-ft-reports-4907970",
      "classification": "Media report of a company presentation",
      "supports": "Reported cumulative negative free cash flow of $278bn during 2026–30, alongside $840bn revenue and $856bn compute/infrastructure spending over that period.",
      "limit": "Not official annual guidance. No 2027/28 cash-burn split is disclosed. Do not divide the total evenly or add multiyear commitments on top of these modeled costs."
    },
    {
      "id": "openai_earlier_training_plan",
      "title": "WSJ: OpenAI and Anthropic IPO finances",
      "date": "2026-04-05",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-anthropic-ipo-finances-04b3cfb9",
      "classification": "Earlier media report of investor documents",
      "supports": "An earlier OpenAI plan reportedly included $121bn of research compute and $85bn of cash burn in 2028.",
      "limit": "Older than the September multiyear plan. An order-of-magnitude cross-check, not current annual guidance. Training costs cannot be omitted simply because adjusted gross margin is high."
    },
    {
      "id": "anthropic_2025_financials",
      "title": "Reuters: Anthropic IPO prospectus shows sweeping AI vision and surging costs",
      "date": "2026-09-28",
      "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/exclusiveanthropics-ipo-prospectus-shows-sweeping-ai-vision-surging-costs-4921382",
      "classification": "Media report of a confidential prospectus",
      "supports": "$20.28bn of cash, equivalents and short-term investments at December 31, 2025, before the announced 2026 raises.",
      "limit": "This is a historical balance. Neither that amount nor historical cash plus subsequent raises establishes unrestricted liquidity at January 1, 2027."
    },
    {
      "id": "anthropic_distribution_fees",
      "title": "Reuters: Anthropic prospectus lays bare dependence on Big Tech partners",
      "date": "2026-09-29",
      "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/exclusiveanthropic-ipo-prospectus-lays-bare-deep-dependence-on-big-tech-partners-4923585",
      "classification": "Media analysis of a confidential prospectus",
      "supports": "Reported 2025 cloud-partner sales of $2.16bn and distribution fees of $351mn, with fees included in operating expenses.",
      "limit": "Anthropic revenue is gross of these fees. Historical channel fees do not establish our future blended distribution rate. Gross revenue and net revenue require different cost treatment."
    },
    {
      "id": "anthropic_recent_financials",
      "title": "WSJ: Anthropic draft IPO filing shows growth, risks and computing costs",
      "date": "2026-10-20",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/anthropic-revenue-growth-ipo-accaf0f1",
      "classification": "Media report of a confidential draft prospectus",
      "supports": "H1 revenue of $16.3bn and nearly $9bn compute/infrastructure expense; more than $600bn in multiyear infrastructure obligations, with further deals under discussion.",
      "limit": "No annual payout schedule or current usable cash is established. Most of the reported $80.7bn net loss reflects a noncash financing revaluation; net loss is not cash burn."
    },
    {
      "id": "anthropic_2028_revenue",
      "title": "Reuters: Anthropic valuation hinges on $190–200bn 2028 revenue forecast",
      "date": "2026-08-14",
      "url": "https://www.marketscreener.com/news/anthropic-ipo-valuation-hinges-on-190-200-billion-2028-revenue-forecast-sources-say-ce7859dfda8bfe21",
      "classification": "Reported company forecast to investors",
      "supports": "$190–200bn of projected annual revenue in 2028, rather than year-end ARR.",
      "limit": "A dated projection, not realized revenue or a cash-flow forecast. It predates October disclosures and serves as a scenario scale reference."
    },
    {
      "id": "anthropic_broadcom_facility",
      "title": "Reuters: Broadcom to lend Anthropic up to $42bn to lease its chips",
      "date": "2026-10-01",
      "url": "https://www.marketscreener.com/news/broadcom-to-lend-anthropic-up-to-42-billion-to-lease-its-chips-filing-says-ce785ad3de89fe20",
      "classification": "Media report of financing terms",
      "supports": "Conditional convertible financing, restricted cash deposits and possible additional collateral requirements around chip leases.",
      "limit": "No verified unused balance or 2027/28 draw schedule. Distinguish lab financing from separate debt at chip-owning vehicles. Count actual lease cash payments without adding the full hardware purchase again."
    },
    {
      "id": "rittenhouse_countercase",
      "title": "Rittenhouse Research: Can Anthropic meet its $518bn of commitments?",
      "date": "2026-10-20",
      "url": "https://rittenhouseresearch.substack.com/p/can-anthropic-meet-its-518-billion",
      "classification": "Independent analyst model",
      "supports": "A favorable countercase: estimated 2027/28 revenue of $100bn/$140bn versus compute costs of $86bn/$118bn and near breakeven before other cash adjustments.",
      "limit": "Contract timing and cancellability are the author's estimates. Its larger cash balance assumes a $100bn IPO; that is fresh financing, not already available cash."
    },
    {
      "id": "aurelion_field_trip",
      "title": "Aurelion Research: Field Trip — AI Has to Be Seen to Be Believed",
      "date": "2026-10-22",
      "url": "https://read.aurelionresearch.com/p/field-trip-ai-has-to-be-seen-to-be",
      "classification": "Independent research and interview anecdotes",
      "supports": "A reason to stress-test lab value capture: productivity can rise while some customers shift toward open models and owned hardware.",
      "limit": "Selected anonymous interviews do not quantify market-wide migration. Ownership comparisons omit important operating and implementation costs. The article supplies no annual 2027/28 lab funding schedule."
    },
    {
      "id": "vercel_gateway_index",
      "title": "Vercel AI Gateway Production Index — October 2026",
      "date": "2026-10-15",
      "url": "https://vercel.com/blog/ai-gateway-production-index-october-2026",
      "classification": "Primary platform usage data",
      "supports": "Open-weight models reached 71.5% of gateway tokens and 23% of estimated spending. Frontier spending also rose tenfold since December: share loss can coexist with revenue growth.",
      "limit": "One platform's panel; spending is estimated at list prices, not actual bills. Token categories have different compute costs. These figures are not global market shares."
    },
    {
      "id": "pequity_prepayments",
      "title": "P Equity Research: Expert takeaways on data centers",
      "date": "2026-10-20",
      "url": "https://x.com/pequityresearch/status/2112589669699403886",
      "classification": "Secondary expert-call commentary",
      "supports": "Reports that some US neocloud contracts require 20–30% upfront prepayment, supporting a separate cash-timing sensitivity.",
      "limit": "Not verified contract terms for either lab. Our net prepayment assumptions are explicitly estimates, after credits applied against compute charges."
    },
    {
      "id": "gs_coreweave_oct19",
      "title": "Goldman Sachs: CoreWeave — Upgrade to Buy; contract economics",
      "date": "2026-10-19",
      "url": "https://marketdesk.ai/standalone/yOCqsF7bD8V",
      "classification": "Sellside forecast; original report reviewed privately",
      "supports": "Matched forecasts show 2027/28 free cash flow of approximately −$28.2bn/−$15.8bn and net debt financing of $26.6bn/$20.0bn.",
      "limit": "The link identifies the research item; no subscriber PDF is republished. Forecast financing is not committed funding. Do not add operator shortfalls to lab shortfalls without eliminating transfers between them."
    }
  ]
}