{
  "as_of": "2026-10-22",
  "units": "USD billions; calendar years",
  "classification": "FIAT ELPIS assumptions and calculations, not company guidance or consensus",
  "definition": "Minimum new cash needed during each calendar year to finish at the chosen cash floor, before any voluntary prefunding. New money can be debt, equity, strategic investment or conditional facilities. Intrayear peaks and unidentified maturities are not modeled.",
  "formula": "fresh_funding=max(0, minimum_cash-opening_cash+total_cash_uses-customer_receipts); closing_cash=opening_cash+customer_receipts-total_cash_uses+fresh_funding",
  "controls": [
    "No IPO or proposed new round is included in starting liquidity. Announced 2026 rounds must not be added again to an opening balance that already contains them.",
    "Opening cash is a scenario parameter for unrestricted liquidity at 1 January 2027, not a disclosed balance.",
    "Customer receipts equal annual revenue: no receivables build or release. They are not audited final-consumer-origin cash; some customers may themselves be capital funded.",
    "Incremental advances are net new prepayments or restricted deposits after credits applied against compute charges. They are not a second charge for the same compute.",
    "Other cash costs include payroll, non-compute operating costs, cash taxes, interest, and direct non-compute capex. No separate disclosed principal schedule was available.",
    "Compute cash is not split into training and inference because no matched annual schedule was verified.",
    "A positive quarterly adjusted margin or reported quarterly FCF cannot be extrapolated into this multiyear all-in cash bridge.",
    "Existing or proposed vendor/SPV facilities are not deducted automatically: lease payments may already incorporate that financing.",
    "Annual gaps are conditional on keeping the modeled program; spending cuts can lower financing need at a cost to supplier revenue.",
    "Do not add these lab needs to cloud/operator funding gaps: lab payments become vendor receipts."
  ],
  "companies": {
    "OpenAI": {
      "opening_cash_assumption": 100,
      "minimum_cash_assumption": 20,
      "basis": "Revenue and customer receipts on a net-of-distribution basis. No separate distribution charge. Compute includes all training, inference and idle capacity cash payments.",
      "inputs_status": "All 2027/28 values below are our assumptions or derived scenario outputs",
      "cases": {
        "Bear": [
          {
            "year": 2027,
            "revenue": 65,
            "customer_receipts": 65,
            "compute_cash": 100,
            "distribution_rate": 0,
            "distribution_cash": 0,
            "other_cash_costs": 18,
            "incremental_advances": 12,
            "total_cash_uses": 130,
            "net_cash_burn": 65,
            "opening_cash": 100,
            "minimum_cash": 20,
            "fresh_funding": 0,
            "closing_cash": 35
          },
          {
            "year": 2028,
            "revenue": 90,
            "customer_receipts": 90,
            "compute_cash": 150,
            "distribution_rate": 0,
            "distribution_cash": 0,
            "other_cash_costs": 25,
            "incremental_advances": 18,
            "total_cash_uses": 193,
            "net_cash_burn": 103,
            "opening_cash": 35,
            "minimum_cash": 20,
            "fresh_funding": 88,
            "closing_cash": 20
          }
        ],
        "Base": [
          {
            "year": 2027,
            "revenue": 95,
            "customer_receipts": 95,
            "compute_cash": 125,
            "distribution_rate": 0,
            "distribution_cash": 0,
            "other_cash_costs": 22,
            "incremental_advances": 8,
            "total_cash_uses": 155,
            "net_cash_burn": 60,
            "opening_cash": 100,
            "minimum_cash": 20,
            "fresh_funding": 0,
            "closing_cash": 40
          },
          {
            "year": 2028,
            "revenue": 150,
            "customer_receipts": 150,
            "compute_cash": 185,
            "distribution_rate": 0,
            "distribution_cash": 0,
            "other_cash_costs": 30,
            "incremental_advances": 12,
            "total_cash_uses": 227,
            "net_cash_burn": 77,
            "opening_cash": 40,
            "minimum_cash": 20,
            "fresh_funding": 57,
            "closing_cash": 20
          }
        ],
        "Bull": [
          {
            "year": 2027,
            "revenue": 130,
            "customer_receipts": 130,
            "compute_cash": 145,
            "distribution_rate": 0,
            "distribution_cash": 0,
            "other_cash_costs": 25,
            "incremental_advances": 5,
            "total_cash_uses": 175,
            "net_cash_burn": 45,
            "opening_cash": 100,
            "minimum_cash": 20,
            "fresh_funding": 0,
            "closing_cash": 55
          },
          {
            "year": 2028,
            "revenue": 220,
            "customer_receipts": 220,
            "compute_cash": 215,
            "distribution_rate": 0,
            "distribution_cash": 0,
            "other_cash_costs": 38,
            "incremental_advances": 8,
            "total_cash_uses": 261,
            "net_cash_burn": 41,
            "opening_cash": 55,
            "minimum_cash": 20,
            "fresh_funding": 6,
            "closing_cash": 20
          }
        ]
      },
      "opening_cash_sensitivity": [
        {
          "opening_cash": 60,
          "Bear": 128,
          "Base": 97,
          "Bull": 46
        },
        {
          "opening_cash": 80,
          "Bear": 108,
          "Base": 77,
          "Bull": 26
        },
        {
          "opening_cash": 100,
          "Bear": 88,
          "Base": 57,
          "Bull": 6
        },
        {
          "opening_cash": 120,
          "Bear": 68,
          "Base": 37,
          "Bull": 0
        },
        {
          "opening_cash": 140,
          "Bear": 48,
          "Base": 17,
          "Bull": 0
        }
      ]
    },
    "Anthropic": {
      "opening_cash_assumption": 85,
      "minimum_cash_assumption": 15,
      "basis": "Revenue and customer receipts on a gross basis; separate distribution charge. Compute includes all training, inference and idle capacity cash payments.",
      "inputs_status": "All 2027/28 values below are our assumptions or derived scenario outputs",
      "cases": {
        "Bear": [
          {
            "year": 2027,
            "revenue": 75,
            "customer_receipts": 75,
            "compute_cash": 100,
            "distribution_rate": 0.1,
            "distribution_cash": 7.5,
            "other_cash_costs": 8,
            "incremental_advances": 10,
            "total_cash_uses": 125.5,
            "net_cash_burn": 50.5,
            "opening_cash": 85,
            "minimum_cash": 15,
            "fresh_funding": 0,
            "closing_cash": 34.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2028,
            "revenue": 100,
            "customer_receipts": 100,
            "compute_cash": 140,
            "distribution_rate": 0.1,
            "distribution_cash": 10.0,
            "other_cash_costs": 12,
            "incremental_advances": 15,
            "total_cash_uses": 177.0,
            "net_cash_burn": 77.0,
            "opening_cash": 34.5,
            "minimum_cash": 15,
            "fresh_funding": 57.5,
            "closing_cash": 15.0
          }
        ],
        "Base": [
          {
            "year": 2027,
            "revenue": 100,
            "customer_receipts": 100,
            "compute_cash": 90,
            "distribution_rate": 0.1,
            "distribution_cash": 10.0,
            "other_cash_costs": 8,
            "incremental_advances": 5,
            "total_cash_uses": 113.0,
            "net_cash_burn": 13.0,
            "opening_cash": 85,
            "minimum_cash": 15,
            "fresh_funding": 0,
            "closing_cash": 72.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2028,
            "revenue": 150,
            "customer_receipts": 150,
            "compute_cash": 125,
            "distribution_rate": 0.1,
            "distribution_cash": 15.0,
            "other_cash_costs": 12,
            "incremental_advances": 10,
            "total_cash_uses": 162.0,
            "net_cash_burn": 12.0,
            "opening_cash": 72.0,
            "minimum_cash": 15,
            "fresh_funding": 0,
            "closing_cash": 60.0
          }
        ],
        "Bull": [
          {
            "year": 2027,
            "revenue": 130,
            "customer_receipts": 130,
            "compute_cash": 105,
            "distribution_rate": 0.09,
            "distribution_cash": 11.7,
            "other_cash_costs": 10,
            "incremental_advances": 5,
            "total_cash_uses": 131.7,
            "net_cash_burn": 1.6999999999999886,
            "opening_cash": 85,
            "minimum_cash": 15,
            "fresh_funding": 0,
            "closing_cash": 83.30000000000001
          },
          {
            "year": 2028,
            "revenue": 210,
            "customer_receipts": 210,
            "compute_cash": 150,
            "distribution_rate": 0.08,
            "distribution_cash": 16.8,
            "other_cash_costs": 15,
            "incremental_advances": 10,
            "total_cash_uses": 191.8,
            "net_cash_burn": -18.19999999999999,
            "opening_cash": 83.30000000000001,
            "minimum_cash": 15,
            "fresh_funding": 0,
            "closing_cash": 101.5
          }
        ]
      },
      "opening_cash_sensitivity": [
        {
          "opening_cash": 55,
          "Bear": 87.5,
          "Base": 0,
          "Bull": 0
        },
        {
          "opening_cash": 65,
          "Bear": 77.5,
          "Base": 0,
          "Bull": 0
        },
        {
          "opening_cash": 75,
          "Bear": 67.5,
          "Base": 0,
          "Bull": 0
        },
        {
          "opening_cash": 85,
          "Bear": 57.5,
          "Base": 0,
          "Bull": 0
        },
        {
          "opening_cash": 95,
          "Bear": 47.5,
          "Base": 0,
          "Bull": 0
        },
        {
          "opening_cash": 105,
          "Bear": 37.5,
          "Base": 0,
          "Bull": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  }
}