Dated 2026-04-22; Goldman Sachs “GS Global Equities Call” morning note.

Market snapshot: SPX futures +60 bps, NDX +75 bps, RTY +90 bps; UST 10y -1 bp to ~4.28%.

Commodities/crypto snapshot: WTI +40 bps to ~$90.00; gold +80 bps to ~$4,757; Bitcoin +3% to ~$78,100.

US equities rebounded after reports Trump extended the Iran ceasefire after-hours; US maintained a blockade while Iran reportedly seized two ships and threatened Strait of Hormuz reopening contingent on blockade ending.

Earnings focus: UAL guided Q2/FY below expectations citing fuel costs; Lufthansa reportedly cut ~20k summer flights to save fuel; COF raised provisions and cited conflict as a consumer headwind.

Season-to-date results: ~82% of SPX companies reporting had beaten estimates (per Bloomberg).

No major US economic data or Fed speakers scheduled; early estimates suggest ~$23bn of US equities for sale from month-end pension rebalancing.

ETF note: Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) reportedly reached $1bn AUM in 10 sessions; examples of prior “new access” ETFs cited include LQD (IG credit) and GLD (spot gold).

FX Trader Call scheduled for 2:00 PM London, covering G10 and EM themes and trade ideas.

Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh told the Senate Banking Committee he is committed to Fed independence and not pre-committed to any policy decision.

Warsh advocated gradually reducing the Fed balance sheet and signaling plans in advance while coordinating with the Treasury.

Warsh favored trimmed-mean and median inflation metrics; Dallas Fed trimmed mean cited at 2.3% YoY and Cleveland Fed median at 2.8% YoY versus core PCE at 3.0% YoY.

Supply-chain note: 13 mtpa of Qatari LNG (about 3% of global LNG supply) expected offline for 3–5 years; GS estimates 2.5 mb/d of Middle East refinery outages (about 6% of global refining capacity).

UK CPI recap: Core 3.15% (vs consensus 3.2%), Headline 3.32% (vs consensus 3.3%), Services 4.48% (above consensus 4.3%); services upside driven by volatile components including airfares.

US Equity Outlook: GS expects the S&P 500 to rise ~7% to a 7600 year-end target, embedding 12% EPS growth this year, 10% next year, and a ~21x P/E multiple.

Document dated 22 April 2026; authored by Tony Pasquariello at Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets.

Bear case cites potential cascading energy-flow disruption as the Iran war approaches the two-month mark.

Bear case notes speculative buying may taper, with CTA demand having averaged about $60bn per week recently.

Bear case highlights narrow equity rally: only ~5% of Russell 3000 stocks are trading at 52-week highs.

Bear case expects US GDP growth to slow considerably in the second half of the year as tax stimulus fades.

Bull case argues the trading community has room to add risk; GS PB overall net exposure moved from the 93rd percentile (end-Feb) to the 53rd percentile (current).

Author’s view: S&P RSI is ~70 and peak speculative buying is behind; primary bull trend intact but tactical risk/reward not compelling; positioning remains long delta/long vol with hedges potentially increased due to underpriced downside tails.

The recent equity move is described as largely flow-driven, with key flow drivers starting to fade.

SPX has surged into an upper trend line and moved from undershooting to aggressively overshooting the 200-day moving average.

CTA equity-chasing flows are decelerating sharply after running at roughly $60bn per week.

Goldman Sachs estimates about $23bn of potential month-end pension equity selling following the melt-up.

QQQ/ETF trading volumes have continued to dwindle, implying thinner liquidity and more violent repositioning risk.

Volatility has bid higher even as spot rose; with VIX around 20 and SPX at all-time highs, hedging is characterized as expensive.

Energy/oil is flagged as a key macro trigger, and growth is expected to slow into H2 as fiscal support fades.

A short-term downside hedge example is cited: SPY May 700/680 put spread.

Publication: BofA Global Research "World at a Glance" (WAAG) monthly; edition dated 2026-04-22.

G10 FX forecasts unchanged; end-2026 EUR/USD forecast remains 1.20.

US rates: end-2026 UST 10Y forecast held at 4.25%; end-2026 UST 2Y revised to 3.50% (from 3.25%).

EM Asia: year-end USD/CNY forecast maintained at 6.7.

Commodities: 2026 average Brent forecast upgraded to $92/bbl; Henry Hub natural gas forecast reduced (milder weather).

Japan rates: end-2026 10Y JGB yield forecast maintained at 2.6%; FX: 2026 year-end USD/JPY forecast 157.

UK rates: end-2026 forecasts include 2Y Gilts 4.25% and 10Y Gilts 5.00%.

Canada FX: USD/CAD forecast path ends 2026 at 1.36 (with 1.38 in 1H26); EEMEA FX call highlights bullish PLN, ZAR, TRY, CZK, HUF, ILS.

US equities closed higher after an extension of the ceasefire: SPX +105 bps to 7137, NDX +173 bps to 26,937, RTY +74 bps to 2785.

AI-linked themes rose: Power Up America (GSX1POW1) +327 bps and AI Semis (GSCBSMHX) +369 bps; GEV +13.8% and MU +8.5%.

European equities finished slightly lower: SXXP -40 bps and SX5E -40 bps, with Growth and Beta factors lagging.

ECB expectation shifted to two 25 bp cuts in June and September, with an unchanged peak policy rate of 2.5%.

Cross-asset view noted elevated risk of another equity drawdown tied to the Iran war, with limited upside asymmetry for adding risk.

Safran Q1 was strong as expected, but Hormuz/jet-fuel concerns weighed; GE fell ~4% on the day and was ~-9% over two days, Safran ~-10% over the same period.

EPS snippets: TXN beat and guided FQ2 revenue above consensus; LRCX guided revenue ~10% above street; NOW -13% on guidance/margin concerns; IBM -6% with no AI backlog number and reiterated FY revenue/FCF guidance.

Flow through earnings indicates limited demand for consumer stocks; positioning still shows consistent long-only selling in Luxury and HPC (e.g., Unilever, Beiersdorf, Reckitt).

Q1 results are not shifting cautious top-down consumer views; some Q1 tailwinds cited (early Easter, later CNY, Tet timing in Vietnam, GST restocking in India), raising questions for Q2 delivery.

China is described as consistently recovering across sectors, with improving consumer confidence, positive March exit rates post-CNY, and better pricing trends; Luxury and several Staples names show sequential improvement.

India prints show broad-based strength (e.g., L’Oreal, Reckitt, Pernod, Nestle), with GST-related restocking and demand elasticity on lower prices cited as supports despite oil-import and inflation concerns.

US demand has been better than expected in discretionary and Staples, but economists estimate a $75–90bn tax filing season benefit; rising gasoline prices are expected to become a headwind and drive downtrading.

Beauty is highlighted as a standout category (momentum in fragrances and hair; derma recovering), while tourism/travel retail is flagged as the most consistent Q1 softness, particularly in the Middle East and for Luxury.

Company specifics noted: Nestle organic sales +3.5% (RIG +1.2%); L’Oreal underlying LFL 4.2% ahead of consensus; Essity Q1 organic sales +0.4% vs -0.5% expected; Heineken volume-driven beat with guidance reiterated; ABI reportedly involved in an India antitrust investigation (Reuters).

Document is a Goldman Sachs “GS Morning” note dated 23 April 2026 with sections on Europe, cross-asset strategy, THB vs KRW, markets/macro, and Korea Q1 GDP recap.

GS expects Euro area flash PMI to decline 0.6pt to 50.1, broadly in line with consensus.

GS expects a more meaningful decline in manufacturing output after a resilient March reading and a modest moderation in services activity.

EC flash consumer confidence for April shows a further ~0.9 standard-deviation deterioration; no price-related components were released with the flash.

EU leaders meet in Cyprus with coordinated fiscal response to the energy crisis as the main agenda item; deployment of €80bn recovery funds is described as unlikely and would be a market surprise if deployed.

ECB Governing Council commentary continues to show a bias toward tightening; remarks referenced market expectations consistent with two hikes while other members emphasized retaining optionality.

Cross-asset strategy notes most Middle East war “risk-off” has reversed: equities recovered sharply since April while energy declined but remained above pre-war levels; bonds lagged due to a lingering rate shock (especially in Europe).

Suggested tail hedges include credit hedges and European equity puts for renewed stagflation risk, puts on cyclical FX (AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY), and right-tail hedges favoring carry trades and receiving rates (especially in Europe), with S&P 500 upside cited.

Strait of Hormuz conditions are described as not fixed; vessel movement remains far from normal after Iran seized two cargo vessels.

Brent crude is back above $100 and refined product markets are making new highs.

Betting markets reduced the odds of Hormuz returning to normal by end-May to ~40% (from ~80% three days earlier).

U.S. equity leadership remains tied to the AI/investment cycle; AI capex commentary cited from ABB and GE Vernova, and URI rose ~14% post-results.

Copper prices stayed firm, reaching a seven-week high during the week referenced.

Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI rose to 54.9 in April, the strongest pace in roughly four years.

Software tone is mixed/weak: ServiceNow fell on delays in large Middle East government deals and IBM sold off despite headline beats.

Private markets example: Reuters reported Thoma Bravo nearing an agreement to hand software firm Medallia to lenders, wiping out ~$5.1bn of equity from a 2021-vintage LBO.

Feroli expects US flash PMI Manufacturing at 53.0 (vs 52.5 survey, 52.3 prior) and Services at 51.0 (vs 50.6 survey, 49.8 prior).

Market snapshot: SPX -0.5%, NDX -0.5%, RTY -0.6%; WTI ~$94.48; US 10Y ~4.320%; VIX ~19.75.

Iran reportedly fired on commercial ships and seized at least two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, adding to Middle East supply-risk focus.

Eurozone flash PMIs: Manufacturing 52.2 (vs 50.9 survey, 51.6 prior) and Services 47.4 (vs 49.8 survey, 50.2 prior); UK composite 52.0 (vs 49.8 survey, 50.3 prior).

JPM flow commentary cites de-grossing earlier in the week and notable short-covering; crowded shorts index up +4.8% over 5 days vs SPX +1.4%.

Tech sector is described as tracking stronger cash flow vs capex growth, supporting a higher financing surplus and share buybacks; financing surplus projected to disappear by 2030 but not turn into deficit.

US Market Intel maintains a tactically bullish view, with key risk framed as ceasefire breakdown/re-escalation that could push oil to new highs and equities to new lows.