Treasury long-end buybacks are scheduled nearly three times monthly, with the maximum doubled to $4 billion.

Issuing bills to buy long-dated Treasuries could temporarily lower yields and compress the 30s10s spread.

Operation Twist in 2011–12 initially reduced long-end yields, but much of the effect faded within months.

Most of the rise in the 10-year yield is attributed to a changed macro regime rather than issuance alone.

Procyclical fiscal policy and repeated energy shocks could increase inflation and term premia.

The authors expect broadening profit growth to support another labor-market reacceleration.

The long end requires a credible signal that the Fed will respond if inflation warrants tightening.

Global capital flows are expected to outweigh sustained Treasury efforts to suppress long-term yields.

Treasury bond buybacks may temporarily resemble QE if funded through the Treasury General Account.

Repurchased long-term debt will ultimately need to be reissued unless the fiscal deficit reverses.

The Treasury market has about $5.5 trillion of outstanding bonds and $7.0 trillion of bills.

The author expects the Fed to hold short-term rates through at least December.

Rising term yields are attributed to heavy federal debt supply and foreign financing needs rather than private credit demand.

Employment cost growth is decelerating, while near-term inflation measures may soften further.

Weak retail sales, air travel, real wages, and job expectations indicate slowing consumer demand.

The outlook calls for a steeper yield curve and continued equity-market volatility.

French fiscal and election uncertainty is expected to push the 10-year OAT-Bund spread above 100bp.

France could lack an official 2027 budget until at least the third quarter, with its deficit approaching 6% of GDP without corrective action.

Italian BTP risks center on threats to Giorgia Meloni’s political stability and the rise of Futuro Nazionale.

AfD gains in German state elections could raise the Bund political-risk and term premium.

The note expects wider European government-bond spreads in the short run and higher term premia over the medium term.

Political selloffs in European equities, especially financials, are viewed as tactical buying opportunities.

EUR/USD is expected to remain driven mainly by US-EU rate differentials, Treasury-market developments, and relative economic data.

Treasury buybacks may temporarily resemble QE if funded through the TGA, but repurchased debt will ultimately require reissuance.

Outstanding Treasury bonds total about $5.5 trillion, while bills total about $7.0 trillion.

The note expects the Fed to hold short-term rates through at least December amid softer near-term inflation and consumer activity.

A steeper yield curve and weaker equity market are identified as likely market outcomes.

Employment cost growth is decelerating overall, despite faster wage gains in several lower-paid occupations.

Private-sector leverage and capital-spending credit demand are judged insufficient to explain rising term yields or inflation risk.

Federal spending and efforts to suppress Treasury financing costs are presented as the principal longer-term inflation risks.

Weak retail sales, air travel, real wage growth, and job expectations indicate slowing consumer momentum.

The August US employment report is the week's main economic event.

Deutsche Bank forecasts headline nonfarm payrolls to rebound by 65,000 after a 23,000 decline.

Private payrolls are forecast to rise by 25,000 versus 30,000 previously.

Average hourly earnings are expected to increase 0.4% after a 0.1% rise.

The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.1%, with some risk of rounding to 4.2%.

The report expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates at its September 16 FOMC meeting.

Fed Chair Warsh characterized labor markets as consistent with full employment while remaining concerned about inflation.

Realized volatility, skew, and volatility of volatility have fallen sharply.

VVIX closed at a year-to-date low and its third-lowest level since August 2024.

Dealers remain long gamma, helping suppress realized and front-end implied volatility.

SPX's 10-day average high-low range fell to 0.52%, near its lowest level since 2021.

VXN collapsed while NDX traded largely sideways since early August.

QQQ implied volatility appears cheap.

Semiconductor volatility has undergone one of its largest resets in years.

VIX September or October calls and call spreads are presented as inexpensive hedges.

Right-wing populist parties are gaining support across major European countries.

Italy’s BTP-Bund spread has narrowed from about 250bp when Giorgia Meloni took office to roughly 80bp.

Germany’s September elections are framed as a referendum on Chancellor Friedrich Merz amid rising AfD support.

An AfD state-level victory could strengthen its governing credibility before the next federal election.

Sweden’s Social Democrat-led opposition leads polling by approximately 54% to 45%.

Swedish migration policy has shifted right through lower net migration, stronger return incentives and tighter deportation rules.

Deutsche Bank maintains a Hold rating and a $220 target price on Workday.

Second-quarter revenue was $2.649 billion, up 12.8% year over year and above estimates.

Workday's preliminary FY28 outlook calls for 11% subscription revenue growth.

Non-GAAP operating margin reached 31.1%, versus the 30.0% consensus estimate.

AI new ACV exceeded $100 million and represented more than 25% of quarterly new ACV.

Total AI ACV increased 20% quarter over quarter to $600 million.

FY27 and FY28 revenue estimates were revised to $10.66 billion and $11.75 billion, respectively.

Deutsche Bank maintains a Buy rating on ULTA Beauty.

Second-quarter comparable sales accelerated on a two-year basis to their strongest growth in over two years.

Third-quarter-to-date comparable sales are estimated at or above 4%, while guidance assumes 2%-3% growth in the second half.

ULTA is gaining prestige market share, holding mass-market share, and preserving merchandise margins.

Fiscal 2026 share repurchase guidance increased 20% to $1.8 billion.

The price target was reduced to $671 from $695, based on 20.5 times estimated 2027 EPS.

Key risks include slowing comparable sales, higher reinvestment needs, and renewed competitor distribution expansion.

Technology was the most net-sold global sector last week and experienced its largest percentage de-grossing in two years.

Nasdaq 100 futures bounced from their 100-day support after Nvidia earnings.

Nvidia said top-five hyperscaler capex could reach $800 billion in 2026 and $1.3 trillion in 2027.

QQQ implied volatility appears cheap, while the S&P 500's 10-day average intraday range has compressed to 0.52%.

Software is breaking above its late-May highs, with IGV approaching resistance at $110 and showing a 50/200-day golden cross.

The IGV-to-SOX ratio has broken above a major long-term trend line, signaling software strength relative to semiconductors.

Jackson Hole is viewed as the immediate risk, but the broader setup favors further equity gains absent a hawkish surprise.

Since 1942, buying in November of a US midterm year and holding through April has produced positive returns in every cycle, averaging about 16%.

News & Sell-Side Research

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Public summaries

Sell-Side Research

Treasury Intervention Cannot Beat Markets

Treasury long-end buybacks are scheduled nearly three times monthly, with the maximum doubled to $4 billion.

Bessent Slays the Messenger, Binds Warsh

Treasury bond buybacks may temporarily resemble QE if funded through the Treasury General Account.

Euro Area Political Risk Repricing

French fiscal and election uncertainty is expected to push the 10-year OAT-Bund spread above 100bp.

Bessent Slays the Messenger, Binds Warsh

Treasury buybacks may temporarily resemble QE if funded through the TGA, but repurchased debt will ultimately require reissuance.

US Employment Outlook and September Fed Hike

The August US employment report is the week's main economic event.

Equity Volatility Crash Revives Convexity Appeal

Realized volatility, skew, and volatility of volatility have fallen sharply.

Europe’s Political Shift to the Right

Right-wing populist parties are gaining support across major European countries.

Helpful FY28 Outlook, Still Early Days on AI

Deutsche Bank maintains a Hold rating and a $220 target price on Workday.

ULTA Beauty 2Q26 Review and Outlook

Deutsche Bank maintains a Buy rating on ULTA Beauty.

Tech Positioning Sets Up Renewed Upside Pain

Technology was the most net-sold global sector last week and experienced its largest percentage de-grossing in two years.

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