US Dollar Index (DXY) broke above the 100.00–100.36 range; upside bias with potential towards 105.60/104.59 and higher retracement levels.

EUR/USD is stabilising near range support; a daily close below ~1.1350 would expose ~1.1221, while an oversold bounce could target ~1.1650.

GBP/USD rebound is approaching resistance at the 200-day SMA; a sustained break above ~1.3460 would improve upside prospects.

USD/JPY is pressing multi-year highs; a decisive close above ~162 would confirm breakout with a measured-move objective near 166.40.

USD/CHF shows improving momentum with a 50/200-day SMA “golden cross”; extension levels cited around 0.8213 and 0.8400 if above 0.8000.

WTI crude rebounded after nearing major support near 65; next key resistance/target area highlighted around 87.

Copper holds above key support around 6.14–6.15 following an inverted head-and-shoulders breakout; measured objective cited near 7.06.

US Treasury yields show notable breakouts: 2-year above 4.19% (next 4.45% and potentially 5.29%), 5-year above 4.34% (towards 4.57–4.60%), and 10-year challenging 4.60–4.81% resistance.

Document is an SEB Macro & FICC Research short-term fair value (STFV) FX chart package for G10 and Asian FX.

EUR misvaluations vs majors show largest positive vs CHF (+2.6 st dev) and largest negative vs GBP (-2.8).

USD misvaluations vs majors show USD strongest vs JPY (+1.6) and moderately positive vs SEK and EUR (+0.7 each).

SEK misvaluations are negative versus most peers (e.g., vs NZD -1.8, vs GBP -1.6) and slightly positive vs CHF (+0.3).

NOK misvaluations are slightly positive vs SEK and EUR (+0.3 each) and most positive vs CHF (+0.9).

Asian FX misvaluations versus USD show JPY (-1.6), TWD (-1.5), CNY (-0.9), KRW (-0.8), with THB (+0.1) and SGD (+0.2).

Each listed FX pair includes an STFV chart with minor and major confidence levels.

Publication date is 2026-07-14 and summarizes market-implied pricing for the Riksbank, Norges Bank and other G10 central banks.

Riksbank market pricing implies a policy rate of 1.75% at 2026-06-17 and rising to 2.02% by 2026-12-16.

Riksbank: current market pricing for 2026-12-16 (2.02%) is above the SEB forecast (1.75%), a gap of 27 bps.

Norges Bank market pricing implies a key rate of 4.25% at 2026-06-18 and rising to 4.58% by 2026-12-18.

Norges Bank: by 2026-12-18, market pricing (4.58%) is 8 bps above the SEB forecast (4.50%).

ECB market pricing implies the policy rate rises to 2.71% by 2026-12-17, versus an SEB forecast of 2.25% (market 46 bps higher).

G10 spot reference policy rates listed include: Fed 3.63, BoC 2.29, ECB 2.18, BoE 3.73, SNB -0.04, Riksbank 1.75, NB 4.25, RBA 4.35, RBNZ 2.50, BoJ 0.98.

Document is a trading desk commentary based on technical analysis only and may differ from EFG’s official view.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) at 29,264 is below its 50dma; key supports are 28,890/815 and 28,200/065.

NYSE Composite (NYA) at 23,896 is holding its breakout; breadth (% above 200dma) is around 60–65%.

China CSI 300 (SHSZ300) at 4,796 reclaimed the 200dma and June low, printing a large bullish engulfing candle after an undershoot.

KOSPI at 6,856 printed a hammer-type reversal candle near the February high; rebound target cited is 7,970 (flattening 50dma).

Brent Crude (CO1) at 86.55 has entered a resistance zone ~86–90; 50dma around 89.30; more upside risk only on a clear move through 90.

EURUSD at 1.1390 has support at 1.1350; a daily close below 1.1350 could open 1.1280.

USDCHF at 0.8135 is near recent highs; upper channel band resistance/target at 0.8160/0.8170 after support held above 0.8000.

10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 8 bps to 4.56% amid a bear-steepening move.

Treasury yields ended higher across the curve: 2Y 4.21%, 5Y 4.31%, 20Y 5.07%, 30Y 5.06%.

Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index returned -0.44% for the week; IG corporates -0.60%; MBS -0.47%.

High yield was slightly positive (+0.02%) while emerging markets returned -0.20%.

Investment grade issuance was about $53B; upcoming week supply expected around $40B as banks report earnings.

Municipal new issuance neared $11B; muni fund flows were +$1.38B and the Bloomberg Municipal Index returned -0.32%.

Key upcoming catalysts cited: U.S. CPI (Jul 14), U.S. PPI (Jul 15), retail sales (Jul 16), plus China GDP/activity and euro area CPI.

The outlook forecasts a 4.25%–4.50% range for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at year-end 2026.

Transitional CRE debt is described as a structural, supply-driven opportunity driven by reduced capital availability rather than weakening borrower or asset quality.

Transitional loans are typically floating-rate with 3–5 year durations and fund lease-up, renovation, recapitalization, or repositioning plans.

CRE valuations are stated to have reset about 20%–30% from peak levels, and new originations are underwritten to these lower values.

Spreads are estimated at roughly 25–40 bps above prior-cycle averages, alongside stronger structures and tighter covenants than in the prior liquidity cycle.

Banks have pulled back from direct whole-loan transitional CRE lending and are increasingly providing back-leverage and warehouse financing to non-bank credit funds.

A maturity wall is highlighted: about 37% of CRE maturities from 2025–2027 were originated when the Fed funds rate was below 25 bps, driving refinancing and deal flow.

For U.S. life insurers, transitional CRE debt is positioned as a floating-rate complement to core fixed-rate commercial mortgage loans, with conservative LTVs providing downside insulation.

Housing and logistics are cited as attractive sectors; office is viewed as challenged due to macro headwinds and limited price transparency.

Renewed hostilities in Iran reintroduced geopolitical risk and drove an energy price spike as prices were returning to pre-conflict levels.

Since early June 2026, the Magnificent Seven trailed the Russell 1000 Value Index by more than 10 percentage points, signaling a momentum reversal and rotation away from concentrated tech exposure.

June 2026 Russell index reconstitution shifted several Magnificent Seven names into value benchmarks; their weight in the Russell 1000 Value Index rose to roughly 17% from less than 7%.

Semiconductors now comprise more than 31% of the Russell 1000 Growth Index, complicating diversification for growth managers benchmarked to it.

The commentary argues equity success will depend on identifying where AI delivers real ROI, maintaining valuation discipline, and adapting portfolio construction to reconstituted benchmarks.

Proposed return-seeking approach emphasizes strategies beyond traditional credit, including convertible arbitrage, long-short credit, and opportunistic CLO allocations within a single framework.

Politico reported Trump notified Congress that military operations against Iran resumed on 2026-07-07, via a letter dated 2026-07-10, initiating a disputed new 60-day window without formal congressional approval.

Trump said the blockade of Iranian vessels was reinstated immediately and the US expected a 20% charge for its role as “THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT” on cargo through the strait.

Trump said he will address the nation on Thursday at 9 pm ET (03:00 Friday Swedish time).

Following the reports, the US dollar strengthened, long-term yields rose globally, and US equities closed lower; declines continued in Asia and futures pointed to a negative open in Europe and the US.

Oil prices were about 12% higher than Friday’s close, with Brent around USD 85 per barrel; gold was pressured by a stronger dollar and higher real yields and was approaching USD 4,000 per ounce.

Japan’s yen gained after Finance Minister Katayama said Japanese government bonds could be included in a tax-free investment programme for individuals.

US data/events highlighted: US inflation (headline expected 3.8% y/y vs 4.2% prior), NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, and Warsh’s congressional hearing; Fed Governor Waller warned rates may need to rise if underlying inflation stays elevated, with markets pricing ~45% odds of a July hike.

Swedish krona (SEK) is described as vulnerable when US rates rise and risk-off sentiment increases, potentially becoming a funding currency in carry trades (e.g., selling SEK to buy USD).

June US CPI printed -0.4% m/m SA (prior +0.5%); core CPI was 0.0% m/m SA (prior +0.2%).

The release was below expectations: Scotia forecast +0.1% headline / +0.3% core; consensus -0.1% headline / +0.2% core.

Markets reacted with a bull steepener: US 2-year Treasury yield fell about 10 bps and 10-year fell about 5 bps; equities rose and the dollar weakened.

OIS pricing for the July 29 FOMC decision fell by 7 bps to about 3 bps, reversing the prior day’s move tied to Governor Waller’s guidance.

Core CPI disinflation measures cited: 3-month moving average 2.3% SAAR, 5-month 2.4% SAAR, YTD 2.6% SAAR; last two months running near 1.2% SAAR.

Both core goods and core services inflation weakened; the note cites core goods (ex food/energy commodities) down about 1.2% SAAR and core services (ex housing/energy-related) down about 4.9% SAAR.

Based on CPI-to-PCE mapping, the note suggests June headline PCE may track around -0.3% m/m SA, with core PCE tracking similarly to flat core CPI.

The author cautions against overinterpreting the flat core CPI due to unusually low June seasonal adjustment factors and ongoing sampling/proxy estimation issues (about 40% of the basket estimated by proxy methods).

Report date: July 13, 2026 (data/opinions as of report date).

Headline PCE inflation was 4.1% YoY in May; core PCE inflation was 3.4% YoY.

Dallas Fed research estimates tariffs contributed about 0.8 percentage points to March core PCE inflation, with tariff impacts peaking in Q1.

Tentative reopening of the Strait of Hormuz coincided with easing supply-chain pressures (lower oil prices, easing freight rates, moderating fertilizer prices).

Methodological changes expected by late September could revise May core PCE down to ~3.2% (from 3.4%) per Evercore ISI.

Foreign ownership of U.S. securities reached a record $35.1 trillion in Q1 2026, including $9.3T Treasurys, $4.9T corporate bonds, and $19.4T U.S. equities.

Analysts expect roughly 23% YoY S&P 500 earnings growth for Q2; the Magnificent 7 are flat YTD while the rest of the index is up about 14%.