+2,071%
cumulative return since inception
Since May 2020
4.55
sortino ratio
2026 YTD trajectory
+0.0%
Fiat Elpis
Strategy, process, and published record.
See the Fiat Elpis fund profile, Saâd Filali Khattabi’s investment process, and the independently audited track record behind the desk.
View Fiat Elpis overviewKOSPI rebounded from its 200-day moving average but remains within its downtrend channel.
A bearish 21-day versus 100-day moving-average crossover remains in place.
KOSPI has recently diverged from the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.
Exceptionally high implied volatility supports overwriting strategies and potential consolidation.
South Korean retail investors sold aggressively into Friday’s rebound.
KOSDAQ has fallen more severely than KOSPI.
Fund flows into South Korea remain positive despite the sharp correction.
The report identifies US-China rivalry, the Iran conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war as the principal sources of global geopolitical risk.
The renewed US-Iran conflict halted Strait of Hormuz traffic from 11 July and pushed Brent crude back to about $100 per barrel.
Black Sea shipping attacks are disrupting grain and vegetable-oil flows, adding to global food-price pressure.
China's goods trade surplus is estimated at $2 trillion, intensifying deindustrialization and protectionist pressures in Europe and ASEAN.
Taiwanese chipmakers led by TSMC generated more than 75% of global foundry revenue in the first quarter of 2026.
Global government debt reached 94% of GDP in 2025 and is projected to reach 100% by 2029.
AI, semiconductors, defense, autos, clean energy, critical minerals and payments are identified as the sectors most exposed to geopolitical rivalry.
The report sees elevated risks from a possible super El Niño in the second half of 2026, including additional inflation and growth shocks.
SPX remains within its early-May range, with futures nearing resistance around 7,600 and the range ceiling near 7,700.
NASDAQ rebounded from its 200-day moving average but is approaching a negative trend line and its 21-day moving average.
Semiconductor leadership remains weak, with SOX still in a negative trend channel despite strong semiconductor ETF inflows.
Equity downside skew has compressed, indicating reduced demand for downside protection.
TLT put skew reached the 98th percentile while call skew fell to the 2nd percentile, signaling positioning for higher yields.
QQQ put skew dropped to the 14th percentile as traders retained a modest preference for upside calls.
The divergence between bearish Treasury positioning and bullish technology-equity positioning creates a notable market asymmetry.
Samsung Electronics, Keyence, Shengyi Tech, BYD, and Hong Kong Exchanges were added to the APAC Conviction List.
Victory Giant and Yaskawa Electric were removed from the APAC Conviction List.
MediaTek's 12-month target was raised to NT$7,000 on stronger AI ASIC expectations.
Multiple Asian technology companies reported earnings beats driven by AI and data-center demand.
Fanuc retained a Sell rating after procurement constraints caused a first-quarter profit miss.
Divi's Labs retained a Buy rating after revenue rose 28% and EBITDA increased 72% year over year.
Goldman expects Chinese fiscal policy to become a growth driver in the second half of 2026.
Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating and W480,000 12-month price target, implying 86% upside from W258,000.
Second-quarter 2026 ex-LGES operating profit of W487bn exceeded the W135bn estimate due mainly to temporary petrochemical gains.
Petrochemical operating profit reached W427bn, aided by inventory timing, wider spreads, and a one-off US tariff refund.
Advanced Materials operating profit of W20bn was 70% below estimate, while revenue was 25% below estimate.
Battery materials revenue fell 32% year over year amid weaker North American EV demand and Ultium production suspension.
Management targets high-value-added products to exceed 25% of petrochemical sales by 2030.
LG Chem trades at an estimated 74% discount to NAV and 0.6 times 2026 estimated book value.
Goldman Sachs expects free cash flow excluding LGES to inflect positively in 2027.
SMFG reported first-quarter net business profit of ¥722.3 billion, up 32% year over year.
Quarterly net profit rose 33% year over year to ¥501.4 billion, broadly in line with estimates.
Domestic loans grew 7% year over year, while higher rates widened the loan-to-deposit spread.
Goldman Sachs raised FY3/27-FY3/29 net profit estimates by 1%, 5%, and 4%, respectively.
The 12-month price target increased to ¥7,500 from ¥7,300, implying 10.1% upside from ¥6,814.
Goldman Sachs maintained its Buy rating, citing steady profit growth and potential P/B upside.
JNJ presented its OTTAVA surgical robotics strategy following FDA De Novo authorization.
Initial FDA authorization covers 10 general surgery procedures, with further urology and gynecology indications planned.
The company plans a disciplined US rollout beginning with select teaching institutions before broader geographic expansion.
Goldman Sachs reiterates its Buy rating and sees successful OTTAVA commercialization as potential upside.
The 12-month price target is $282, based on a 20x P/E multiple, versus a reported price of $256.35.
Key risks include slower new-product adoption, talc litigation costs, macroeconomic pressure, and tariffs.
Goldman Sachs reiterates a Buy rating on Northern Star Resources with a 12-month price target of A$23.80.
KCGM's mill expansion to 27Mtpa capacity is nearing completion, with Stage 1 ramp-up targeted for early September 2026.
Sustained mill throughput of 27Mtpa is expected from approximately FY29.
Steady-state processing costs are targeted to decline from about A$45/t in FY26 to A$20-25/t by FY29.
The mill project is expected to cost A$1.76bn, with approximately A$160mn of cash outflow remaining.
Goldman Sachs estimates KCGM production of 615koz in FY27 at approximately A$2,850/oz.
KCGM added roughly 15Moz of resources and 3Moz of reserves over five years at a discovery cost near A$17/oz.
Key risks include commissioning, operations, cost inflation, commodity prices, macro conditions, growth execution and M&A.
Indonesia's CPI inflation eased to 2.9% year over year in July from 3.3% in June.
The July CPI reading was below Goldman Sachs' 3.0% estimate and the 3.2% Bloomberg consensus.
Consumer prices fell 0.1% month over month in July after rising 0.4% in June.
Core inflation increased to 2.8% year over year, while monthly core inflation remained near 0.2%.
Food and beverage prices declined 0.3% month over month due largely to cheaper shallots and chilies.
Lower gold jewelry prices contributed to a 0.1% monthly decline in personal care and miscellaneous goods prices.
Intensifying El Niño conditions through early 2027 pose upside risks to food and agricultural prices.
The August edition is a data-only GOAL Kickstart using prices as of the July 31 close.
Equities are neutral overall, with overweights in the S&P 500, Asia-Pacific ex Japan, and TOPIX and an underweight in the Stoxx Europe 600.
The 12-month S&P 500 forecast is 8,300, implying 12.0% total return.
Gold is forecast at $5,210 per troy ounce in 12 months, implying 28.7% upside.
WTI and Brent are forecast to fall to $68 and $73 per barrel, respectively, over 12 months.
Government bonds are neutral overall, while corporate bonds are neutral currently and underweight at the 12-month horizon.
The report covers cross-asset forecasts, valuation, yields, risk appetite, fund flows, sentiment, and CFTC positioning.
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