26Semiconductors · X thread
Nvidia: the selloff is overdone
A 20% cut to consensus EPS and an 18× multiple still give $229 modeled fair value, 36% above the $168 reference price.
Fiat Elpis Research · October 2026
Macro theses, built from market signals.
Evidence-led notes on global macro, market structure and the capital cycle by Saâd Filali Khattabi.
26 published notesLatest note · 28 October 2026
Bullish SMH. The cash comes first.
Our SMH thesis uses memory as evidence: severe profit normalization still leaves modeled upside of 38% for Micron and 74% for Kioxia. Charts on X; Oct 27 reference prices.
Read the thread on XResearch archive · August 2026
The Fiat Elpis research archive
Market notes on global macro, market structure and the capital cycle.
25AI infrastructure · X thread
AI buildout delays: from 5 GW to Nasdaq earnings
Our modeled 5 GW delay cuts Nasdaq-100 EPS by 0.8% in 2027 and 1.6% in 2028. The assumptions, earnings impact and near-term bounce case, with charts on X.
23AI funding
The AI cash test: OpenAI and Anthropic into 2028
How much fresh funding do OpenAI and Anthropic need in 2027–2028? Bear, base and bull cash bridges, liquidity sensitivities and clearly labeled assumptions.
22CoreWeave, equity and credit
CRWV: Don’t Buy That Dip
CRWV: Don’t Buy That Dip. Our forecast bridge implies another $27–36bn of consolidated financing through end-2027. The equity absorbs the funding risk.
21AI infrastructure and cross-asset trades
Short NQ, NKY and SMH; Long TLT and Gold: The Neocloud Capex Trap
Coverage charts, a $146bn financing wall and the CoreWeave capex trap. Short NQ, NKY and SMH; long TLT and gold as the AI investment cycle resets.
20France & euro-area risk
France Relief Trade: Long OATs, EUR and CAC 40
Forced OAT selling, stretched EUR shorts and a likely French budget compromise support tactical longs in OATs, EUR and the CAC 40. Sellside views compared.
19Bonds and market structure
POST MORTEM of the bond market
TLT's post-Fed reversal, weaker Treasury auction participation and the funding risks that could turn duration losses into forced selling. Tables and corrected volatility analysis.
18FX and monetary policy
Long USD/JPY: the Fed follows through, the BoJ faces a higher bar
My long USD/JPY thesis: a larger US inflation overshoot, room for another Fed hike and a BoJ that may temper a market increasingly leaning toward yen strength.
17Sterling and monetary policy
GBP faces a high bar: the Bank of England can hold while the curve prices hikes
The BoE is likely to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%, but markets price rapid tightening. The GBP risk is a Bank that is less hawkish than the curve.
16Gold and monetary policy
Long gold: why a dovish Fed hike can fuel the next move
My gold thesis: a dovish Warsh hike, political resistance to sustained tightening and persistent pipeline inflation can weaken real returns and support gold.
15Energy and refining
The diesel squeeze: why fixing refineries can be bullish for crude
US and European diesel stocks remain depleted. The inventory charts, what would deliver real relief, and why refinery recovery can support crude demand.
14High-conviction macro
Four high-conviction macro trades for the new dollar regime
Short gold and EUR/USD; long Nasdaq-100 and Hang Seng as Fed credibility, AI earnings and China policy compression reset cross-asset odds.
13Hedge-fund positioning
Pod books are cutting net—not building a fresh technology short
Goldman and Morgan Stanley prime-book proxies show lower hedge-fund net exposure, long-sale-led technology de-grossing and concentrated APAC selling.
12AI infrastructure credit
AI’s financing deficit is not its $1.5 trillion funding wall
AI’s 2027 internal-cash shortfall is roughly $200–250B. The $700–730B figure is gross external financing, not an unfunded deficit.
11AI economics
The AI token price floor is moving from cost to value
AI model costs keep falling per task, but usage and agent workloads are rising faster. Token pricing is shifting from a compute race to value capture.
10Labor & AI
The July jobs report is an AI warning—but not AI proof
U.S. payrolls fell 23,000 in July 2026 and local government education lost jobs. The data show labor cooling, but do not isolate AI as the cause.
09Holding companies
SoftBank’s OpenAI stake is hidden inside the ARM discount
SoftBank’s June 2026 NAV was roughly twice its share price. ARM dominates visible value while OpenAI sits inside SVF2, making buybacks unusually accretive.
08Market structure
Why strong memory earnings could not stop Korea’s forced selling
Korea tripled minimum deposits for single-stock leveraged products in July 2026. Trading collapsed, showing how flows can overpower memory fundamentals.
07Foreign exchange
USD/JPY can fall on positioning before fundamentals turn
Japan’s 2026 yen intervention and crowded futures positioning create USD/JPY unwind risk even while the real-rate differential remains dollar-supportive.
06AI capital cycle
AI capex is accelerating because the revenue backlog is accelerating too
Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta are lifting AI spending. Faster cloud growth and backlog explain why the capex cycle is not rolling over yet.
05AI infrastructure credit
CoreWeave’s credit can work even when the equity disappoints
CoreWeave’s backlog, contracts and financing reduce near-term default risk, but dilution, capex and return on capital still matter for CRWV equity.
04Technology policy
A CXMT ban would protect memory pricing—and raise the cost of AI
A U.S. CXMT or YMTC procurement ban could support Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix while keeping DRAM and NAND supply tighter for AI buyers.
03NAND & storage
SanDisk and Kioxia are selling duration, not just expensive NAND
SanDisk agreements and Kioxia’s AI storage roadmap extend NAND visibility beyond 2027. The valuation question is shifting from price to duration.
02Semiconductors
The AI memory supercycle is a duration story, not a spot-price story
Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron point to persistent AI-driven DRAM and HBM scarcity. Here is why the 2027–2028 supply response may still arrive late.
01Federal Reserve
Gold and Fed rate-hike odds: why September may be underpriced
Gold near $4,400, rising oil and a 10-year Treasury yield back near 4.7% suggest markets may be underpricing a September 2026 Federal Reserve rate hike.
Live market context
The notes are the thesis. The Live Desk is the tape.
Follow the latest market headlines and public sell-side summaries in the separate, continuously refreshed desk.
Open Live DeskResearch in context