02Semiconductors
The AI memory supercycle is a duration story, not a spot-price story
Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron point to persistent AI-driven DRAM and HBM scarcity. Here is why the 2027–2028 supply response may still arrive late.
Fiat Elpis Research · August 2026
Macro theses, built from market signals.
Evidence-led notes on global macro, market structure and the capital cycle by Saâd Filali Khattabi.
11 published notes · Primary sources · Explicit falsifiers
Featured note · 21 August 2026
Gold and Fed rate-hike odds: why September may be underpriced
Gold near $4,400, rising oil and a 10-year Treasury yield back near 4.7% suggest markets may be underpricing a September 2026 Federal Reserve rate hike.
Read the macro noteResearch archive · August 2026
Ten theses from the Fiat Elpis market desk
Drawn from 300 recent @FiatElpis posts, then developed with primary filings, policy documents and explicit falsifiers.
03NAND & storage
SanDisk and Kioxia are selling duration, not just expensive NAND
SanDisk agreements and Kioxia’s AI storage roadmap extend NAND visibility beyond 2027. The valuation question is shifting from price to duration.
04Technology policy
A CXMT ban would protect memory pricing—and raise the cost of AI
A U.S. CXMT or YMTC procurement ban could support Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix while keeping DRAM and NAND supply tighter for AI buyers.
05AI infrastructure credit
CoreWeave’s credit can work even when the equity disappoints
CoreWeave’s backlog, contracts and financing reduce near-term default risk, but dilution, capex and return on capital still matter for CRWV equity.
06AI capital cycle
AI capex is accelerating because the revenue backlog is accelerating too
Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta are lifting AI spending. Faster cloud growth and backlog explain why the capex cycle is not rolling over yet.
07Foreign exchange
USD/JPY can fall on positioning before fundamentals turn
Japan’s 2026 yen intervention and crowded futures positioning create USD/JPY unwind risk even while the real-rate differential remains dollar-supportive.
08Market structure
Why strong memory earnings could not stop Korea’s forced selling
Korea tripled minimum deposits for single-stock leveraged products in July 2026. Trading collapsed, showing how flows can overpower memory fundamentals.
09Holding companies
SoftBank’s OpenAI stake is hidden inside the ARM discount
SoftBank’s June 2026 NAV was roughly twice its share price. ARM dominates visible value while OpenAI sits inside SVF2, making buybacks unusually accretive.
10Labor & AI
The July jobs report is an AI warning—but not AI proof
U.S. payrolls fell 23,000 in July 2026 and local government education lost jobs. The data show labor cooling, but do not isolate AI as the cause.
11AI economics
The AI token price floor is moving from cost to value
AI model costs keep falling per task, but usage and agent workloads are rising faster. Token pricing is shifting from a compute race to value capture.
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