Fiat Elpis Research · September 2026
Evidence-led notes on global macro, market structure and the capital cycle by Saâd Filali Khattabi.
19 published notesLatest note · 30 September 2026
TLT's post-Fed reversal, weaker Treasury auction participation and the funding risks that could turn duration losses into forced selling. Tables and corrected volatility analysis.
Read the macro noteResearch archive · August 2026
Market notes on global macro, market structure and the capital cycle.
18FX and monetary policy
My long USD/JPY thesis: a larger US inflation overshoot, room for another Fed hike and a BoJ that may temper a market increasingly leaning toward yen strength.
17Sterling and monetary policy
The BoE is likely to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%, but markets price rapid tightening. The GBP risk is a Bank that is less hawkish than the curve.
16Gold and monetary policy
My gold thesis: a dovish Warsh hike, political resistance to sustained tightening and persistent pipeline inflation can weaken real returns and support gold.
15Energy and refining
US and European diesel stocks remain depleted. The inventory charts, what would deliver real relief, and why refinery recovery can support crude demand.
14High-conviction macro
Short gold and EUR/USD; long Nasdaq-100 and Hang Seng as Fed credibility, AI earnings and China policy compression reset cross-asset odds.
13Hedge-fund positioning
Goldman and Morgan Stanley prime-book proxies show lower hedge-fund net exposure, long-sale-led technology de-grossing and concentrated APAC selling.
12AI infrastructure credit
AI’s 2027 internal-cash shortfall is roughly $200–250B. The $700–730B figure is gross external financing, not an unfunded deficit.
11AI economics
AI model costs keep falling per task, but usage and agent workloads are rising faster. Token pricing is shifting from a compute race to value capture.
10Labor & AI
U.S. payrolls fell 23,000 in July 2026 and local government education lost jobs. The data show labor cooling, but do not isolate AI as the cause.
09Holding companies
SoftBank’s June 2026 NAV was roughly twice its share price. ARM dominates visible value while OpenAI sits inside SVF2, making buybacks unusually accretive.
08Market structure
Korea tripled minimum deposits for single-stock leveraged products in July 2026. Trading collapsed, showing how flows can overpower memory fundamentals.
07Foreign exchange
Japan’s 2026 yen intervention and crowded futures positioning create USD/JPY unwind risk even while the real-rate differential remains dollar-supportive.
06AI capital cycle
Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta are lifting AI spending. Faster cloud growth and backlog explain why the capex cycle is not rolling over yet.
05AI infrastructure credit
CoreWeave’s backlog, contracts and financing reduce near-term default risk, but dilution, capex and return on capital still matter for CRWV equity.
04Technology policy
A U.S. CXMT or YMTC procurement ban could support Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix while keeping DRAM and NAND supply tighter for AI buyers.
03NAND & storage
SanDisk agreements and Kioxia’s AI storage roadmap extend NAND visibility beyond 2027. The valuation question is shifting from price to duration.
02Semiconductors
Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron point to persistent AI-driven DRAM and HBM scarcity. Here is why the 2027–2028 supply response may still arrive late.
01Federal Reserve
Gold near $4,400, rising oil and a 10-year Treasury yield back near 4.7% suggest markets may be underpricing a September 2026 Federal Reserve rate hike.
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